Some years ago, I used to live on my bike. Riding around daily through any weather condition was bound to quickly wear down on the bike over time. I like some of the stuff that you have in your toolkit. I would say zip ties are actually really convenient, because when something came loose you could go ahead and use those to fasten them down to keep on moving ahead until you had enough time to fix it or get it checked at a bike repair shop.
In spite of seat bags’ diminutive size, a lot of people really, really want them to accommodate more stuff. If that’s you, the medium and large seat bag (but not the small) have an extendable gill at the bottom, which you can see in the image up top. It zips open to create more room. With it unzipped, we could cram a wallet, keys, and phone inside the medium as well.
Return: Bicycle and lock must be returned by the end of the loan period. User will be charged a $10.00/day late fee. After 10 business days user will be charged the full cost of the bicycle ($350) and rented equipment ($50 for lock and/or key). Failure to return bicycle, helmet and lock will subject user to legal liability of $400.00, as well as having student account placed on hold.

Let me go ahead and get the bad stuff out of the way. First of all, this stand is NOT the same level of quality as something you would find in a bicycle shop being used for the shop's repairs. it's quite a bit more flimsy, and the grip likes to rotate if you don't get the bike's center of gravity just right. The tool tray is also made out of a rather cheap plastic that can break easily at the rim. That being said, this stand is perfect for home users and makes mundane tasks like fixing a flat or cleaning the chain much easier. It easily holds my Raleigh Merit 3, and I don't worry about the thing falling even if the grip tilts a bit. The stand significantly shortened the time I needed to change an inner tube on my bicycle, and made me less worried about damaging something on the bike by jury-rigging a stand out of whatever I had lying around.
Now you might be wondering: “I’m carrying a tube; why carry patches at all?” As insurance for the unforeseeable. Wirecutter senior editor Christine Ryan admits she didn’t use to pack them, but said, “I’ve regretted that decision when I’ve had a flat on a ride, used my spare tube, and then, half an hour later, had a second flat. Also, lots of people aren’t very good at figuring out—or don’t take the time to figure out—what caused their flat and remove the cause: thorn, eensy bit of glass, whatever. Then they promptly have a second flat, and everyone else laughs at them.”

2) On my second day, the pannier bag fell off and got lost after I stopped for lunch, which required locking up the bike somewhere, so I took the bag into restaurant and re-attached it using the two velcro straps on the rear rack. I've used many panniers before, thought I did it correctly. But apparently I did not. So I paid $55 (cost) to replace everything in bag and bag. In hindsight, I wished I'd put a bungee around bag straps to really secure it to bike. PROBABLY MY FAULT.
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Keychain style flashlight or headlamp, LED type, not incandescent:   The keychain style is tiny and lightweight, the headlamp style is a bit bulkier but easier to use.    You can get these for a couple of bucks or less at the local big box hardware store.  The LED ones are lighter, more durable and last considerably longer.   Very useful if you need to make a repair after dark!  I keep a keychain style one as a backup as I normally have a headlamp in my backpack.
Don't ever be stranded without the right tools or know-how. The Super Hero Kit for Road Biking is designed to empower all levels of cyclists to fix mechanical problems that can arise on any ride, and to get back home safely. An innovative, time-saving, and economical combination of high-quality tools and materials, and detailed instruction manual, as well as a tube, pump, and bike bag - it's an all-in-one solution - that's ready for your next ride.
Man, if you're starting out and you know you'll need several components for a bag... just get this. It will save you so much time picking everything out that even if you balk at the price (amazing value, by the way) I bet that if you did the math using your hourly wage and the time spent picking everything out and making sure it fits... you'd save a lot of money and a lot of irritation if you just got this. Just get this.
A plastic garbage bag, or $2 disposable poncho:  Just in case of an unexpected downpour or getting caught out after dark.   More than once, I’ve gone for a ride on a beautiful day with a perfect forecast, not taken a jacket and had the weather go south on me.  Being able to cover up can mean the difference between just mild discomfort or a freezing cold, shivering ride home!
As you mentioned, it is surprising how often you can get multiple flat tires on while riding, particularly on longer sprints. The tip about bringing a patch kit in your bike repair kit can be incredibly helpful if you’ve already had one flat tire. I agree that all you listed seems like an awful lot to carry, but it’s always better to be safe than sorry, isn’t it?
We offer several bicycle repair packages, or individual services in the case that you don’t need a full “tune-up”. Whether it’s a small brake adjustment or a complete bike overhaul, we’re happy to help. Our highly experienced staff is here to answer any questions you may have and will help get you and your bike back on the road as quickly as possible.
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